ICC indicts Sudan President Bashir for Darfur genocide
In a potentially earth-shaking move, the International Criminal Court has charged Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir with war crimes related to the Darfur genocide. LINK
Luis Moreno-Ocampo on Monday urged a three-judge panel to issue an arrest warrant for President Omar Hassan al-Bashir to prevent the deaths of about 2.5 million people forced from their homes in the war-torn region of Darfur and who are still under attack from government-backed Janjaweed militia.
The five charges against al-Bashir include masterminding attempts to wipe out African tribes in the war-torn region with a campaign of murder, rape and deportation.
I have mixed feelings about this. On one hand, yes, Bashir is a war criminal. He IS responsible for hundreds of thousands, likely millions, of deaths in Darfur. He's a totalitarian leader with no consideration for his people and he's impossible to negotiate with. On the other hand, it's not like he's actually going to be arrested. There's no way for the ICC to enforce this warrant, so all it really does is make the Sudanese government that much more pissed off at the West, making it that much less likely any lasting peace deal can get done.
My friend May, who's been over there as an aid worker and knows more about the region than anybody I know, called this "the worst setback to the peace process that has happened in Sudan in recent years."
I wonder what'll happen.
I have mixed feelings on the
I have mixed feelings on the case. First off, the warrant can only go forward if Bashir leaves the country, but, if he leaves, every nation which has signed the ICC charter will be compelled to arrest him. However, there is no warrant yet, and this is a key item to bear in mind.
I think it is a huge step backward, at least potentially, for the peace process. It puts the international community in direct opposition to the Bashir government, not a good place to put "Neutral Arbitrators" in. It also means that once the warrant is issued, Bashir will be unwilling to leave the country, which will fuck up any attempt to bring the parties to neutral ground.
That said, it's leverage. It's leverage against Khartoum in two HUGE ways. First, if they have any respect for the world community (Unlikely), or their own necks (Only if the ICC represents a threat... doubtful), they will have to slow or cease the most egregious of their actions, to avoid further cases being brought against their leaders and to repair the damage done. Second, it forces Bashir to act. If he wants to be involved in the peace process (And he has actually moved in that direction) he will be FORCED to push it so that it moves forward BEFORE the warrant is issued. This puts a real timetable on what has been a potentially endless peace process.
Now, another problem is that it also gives the rebels leverage. We need to stop acting like they are pure victims in all of this, and we need to recognize their agency, and that agency marks them as criminals as well. This leverage gives them a lot of power, provided that they can drag the conflict out, most likely by refusing to participate in the peace process (Which they have proven quite willing to do). So, it gives them a good reason to not make peace, and that is a dangerous thing to give anyone.
So, this is a complex decision. Does it force Khartoum to the table, or drive them into isolation? Does it keep the rebels from participating? Does it give the international community some real power in the situation?
This has the power to move the peace process forward rapidly, or to destroy it entirely, and I have not a clue which it will do. As UN dispatch put it, the situation as it stands cannot be allowed to continue, so any potential progress ought to be embraced. However, we must be wary, and the community MUST press this potential advantage, lest it bolster the chaos in Darfur.
Paix et amour,
Joe!
Here's the exact list of
Here's the exact list of charges, just to clarify what's going on.
This changes the situation
This changes the situation slightly. Ocampo is moving against some of the rebel groups as well, insvestigating them for crimes against humanity.
If these prosecutions move forward, many of the statements I made regarding Bashir's investigation are altered significantly. First, the rebels usually seem to have more respect for the international community than Khartoum. This means the charges will likely have more impact of them than on Bashir. Second, it means that the rebels can no longer stall until the warrant is filed against Bashir, and then push Bashir out of the process, or use the pending charges as a point of leverage.
Really, the sum of these two prosecutions in concert are threefold. One, it puts a timetable on the peace process, since cooperation or (I scarcely dare to mention it) success would reflect well in the proceedings. Two, it gives the international community a point of leverage against both parties in the conflict, putting it in a position of power, somewhat. However, third, it, as stated, creates and "Us versus them" mentality, setting the community as the opposition to both the rebels and Khartoum.
I'm much more supportive of the actions now that I see both sides of the pending prosecution. I think that this sort of this has a genuine hope of moving the peace process forward, it may be the only chance of moving it forward, in the end.
Paix et amour,
Joe!
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